Q-Poll Three Way
Here’s what the main question wasn’t (from my comment at MyLeftNutmeg):
If the election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic Candidate Ned Lamont, the Republican Candidate Alan Schlesinger, or the Connecticut for Lieberman Candidate Joseph Lieberman?
I’m underqualified to analyze the numbers, but I’m not beneath posting up some blockquotes and links.
The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Ned Lamont (D) surging post-primary, with an 11 point bounce (among RVs) in the three-way race since a month ago. Ned now has the support of 63% of Democrats, compared to the 52% he won in the primary on Tuesday.
Amazingly, Alan Schlesinger (R) gets only 4%, which must be one of the lowest numbers a major party candidate has received in any poll for any statewide office, in any state, ever.
The poll is sure to strength Lieberman’s already egomaniacal resolve to press on with his (hopefully) quixotic attempt to cling to power. It is also a wake-up call to those who believe Lawrence O’Donnell’s Hollywood ending (Joe will drop out) or who think Joe is so vile that surely the majority of Connecticut voters will agree.
Tim at the Official Blog reminds us of the Q-Poll from May 2006:
(If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?
Lieberman: 65%
Lamont: 19%
DeStefano and Glassman need to start working and work fast and go on the attack against Rell. November is some time away so it will be interesting to see how DeStefano reacts to the poll.
Lastly, this trend-lines graphic by Scarce at My Left Nutmeg ought to make you feel warm fuzzies about Lamont at least:
There’s no doubt that Lamont has a fight ahead of him. But he hasn’t come this far to quit and I believe that Joe’s mouth will eventually be his downfall. The Kiss was just the begining.
It looks to me like the tide will inevitably shift to Ned. Ned only needs 6% of the voters to shift to him from Joe, bringing the result to an even 47% to 47%. 26% of Joe’s voters say their vote is not firm (see Q.11b), so Ned only needs to pick up about one quarter of those voters. Note also that 35% of the Democratic voters still say they are voting for Joe, along with 58% of the Independent voters. Assuming those make up about 80% of all voters, Ned just needs to pick up about 8 percentage points from each of those groups, dropping Joe’s vote to 27% of the Democrats and 50% of the Independents. Joe’s going to go down squealing like a stuck pig, but IMHO, the writing’s on the wall.